What to expect from COP28 in Dubai

Posted in: 11/29/2023

What to expect from COP28 , which will take place from November 30th to December 12th in Dubai , in the Middle East?

Synergia Socioambiental and Envolverde come together and bring you expectations about the 28th Conference of the Parties (COP) , the United Nations (UN) climate change convention. Check out!

Dubai is known for being one of the main showcases of opulence provided by oil in the world. A climate conference under the aegis of the world’s largest fossil fuel producers and, on top of that, with Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of the United Arab Emirates’ national oil company, as president, seems like a contradiction in itself. However, despite the criticisms presented by environmental activists around the world, there are several contexts that must be observed in relation to COP28.

In 2009, at COP15 in Copenhagen, the world made a series of commitments to keep the variation in the global average temperature below 1.5 ºC . To this end, it was agreed that, starting in 2020, countries considered developed should make a contribution of US$100 billion per year for the world’s transition to a green economy .

In 2015, shortly before the Paris COP , Pope Francis released his encyclical “ Laudato Si ”, with warnings about the care we should take with our common home, and criticisms of production and consumption models around the world, especially among rich people. At the Paris COP in 2015, under the influence of the encyclical, countries presented their voluntary targets for reducing emissions .

But what does this impact and what to expect from COP28?

Now, on the eve of COP28 in the United Arab Emirates, Pope Francis launches the encyclical “ Laudate Deum ”, in which he reinforces the criticisms and points out the main factor in the climate crisis , in his words, “the logic of maximum profit at the lowest cost, disguised of rationality, progress and illusory promises”.

Therefore, there is logic in bringing the main component of the crisis to the center of the climate debate , that is, the fossil fuel industry . There is global certainty that this type of fuel should be banned from the global economy. However, there is no certainty as to when this will happen.

More than 200 governments are invited, and many have not yet confirmed their presence. The greatest expectation is in relation to the United States, China and India , which are the largest global emitters of greenhouse gases. President Lula confirmed participation and Brazil should have one of the largest delegations in Dubai, with 15 ministers.

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President Lula carries some important data in his luggage. Brazil managed, in just 8 months , to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation by 50% . It has electrical generation arrays that are the envy of rich countries, with 70% renewable energy and a large part of the vehicle fleet using biofuel . One of the country’s main flags will be the fight against deforestation and the union of countries that own the largest tropical forests on the planet.

The agenda for negotiations at the Dubai COP is broad. The topic of financing for a green transition must occupy the center of the debates. The main focus must be on meeting the voluntary targets of the Paris Agreement , especially on how to accelerate the shift to clean energy by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. To achieve this, it will be necessary to establish financing mechanisms for poor countries for the transition.

During the two weeks in which the countries will meet, there will also be themed days on issues such as health, finance, food and nature.

In relation to the US$100 billion promised in 2009 , this is the big unknown. There is agreement on the general number, but no agreement on how much each person should contribute to this fund.

Text produced by Dal Marcondes

Cooperation between Synergia and Envolverde to cover COP28.

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History of COPs: infographic shows the main events since the 1st. Conference of the Parties (COP), the UN climate change convention

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